I take your point that "social tipping points" are a suspiciously heartening notion. And certainly, imagining there is some particular universal number that applies is nonsense.
That being said - I do think small populations can and do wield disproportionate influence over majority opinion, that is clearly the case for politics in general. The important factor for difficult social change though seems to me to be creating a perception of a majority opinion. It's often just too easy to categorize opinionated people as an interest group; in/out group, rather than for a new population level norm to be recognized and collectively conformed to.
I take your point that "social tipping points" are a suspiciously heartening notion. And certainly, imagining there is some particular universal number that applies is nonsense.
That being said - I do think small populations can and do wield disproportionate influence over majority opinion, that is clearly the case for politics in general. The important factor for difficult social change though seems to me to be creating a perception of a majority opinion. It's often just too easy to categorize opinionated people as an interest group; in/out group, rather than for a new population level norm to be recognized and collectively conformed to.